On January 5, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract surged 3.67% to close at 23,645 yuan/ton, and continued to rise by 3.29% on January 6, closing at 24,335 yuan/ton. On January 7, it hit an intraday high of 24,750 yuan/ton before settling at 24,695 yuan/ton.

The current market exhibits a “strong futures, weak spot” characteristic.​​ While futures prices are surging, the spot market discount has widened to 280 yuan/ton, indicating strong risk aversion among downstream buyers and resulting in thin trading. The processing fee for aluminum water rods has fallen below zero, signaling severely insufficient actual downstream demand.

​Simultaneously, macro and capital factors are driving the market:​​ Expectations of Fed rate cuts are heating up, putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index and making dollar-denominated aluminum ingots more attractive. Geopolitical risks are elevating the strategic premium for non-ferrous metals, prompting continuous capital inflows into industrial metals markets. The trading volume of the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract surged by 215,000 lots in a single day.

​In the short term, multiple institutions expect aluminum prices to maintain high volatility.​​ The core trading range for the main Shanghai aluminum contract is projected to be between 23,000 and 26,000 yuan/ton, while LME aluminum is expected to fluctuate around 3,000-3,300/ton. Morgan Stanley predicts that aluminum prices could reach $3,250/ton in the second quarter of 2026.

​From a long-term perspective, the global aluminum supply-demand gap is forecasted to reach 650,000 tons in 2026, potentially expanding to 1.07 million tons by 2027.​​ The tight supply-demand balance will continue to support aluminum prices, with the Shanghai aluminum price center projected at 22,500-24,000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at 2900-3,200/ton. The market is expected to show a “high first, low later” trend for the year, with potential relief in supply tightness in the second half due to new capacity coming online in Indonesia.