At the macro – level, a series of relevant domestic policies introduced in China have played a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market. The domestic macro – positive atmosphere remains intact. The government has been making efforts to promote the healthy development of the real estate sector through various measures, such as adjusting credit policies, relaxing housing purchase restrictions in some areas, and strengthening the construction of affordable housing. These policies not only aim to ensure the basic housing needs of residents but also contribute to the stability of the overall real estate market, which in turn has a positive spillover effect on the national economy. The stable real estate market provides a solid foundation for the economic growth and the operation of related industries, creating a relatively favorable macro – economic environment.

On the overseas market, the policy stance of Donald Trump has always been inconsistent. His approach to various policies has been characterized by frequent changes, making it difficult for the market to accurately predict his future actions. Moreover, from expressing his stances to actually implementing relevant policies, there are still numerous uncertainties. His policies may cover a wide range of areas, including trade, taxation, and immigration. For example, his potential trade policies could have a significant impact on the global supply chain and international trade relations. Any sudden changes in his policies may trigger market fluctuations, especially in industries highly sensitive to international trade, such as the aluminum industry.

Fundamental Analysis of the Aluminum Industry

In terms of the fundamentals, the cost – side of the electrolytic aluminum industry has shown stability. The raw material prices, such as alumina and power costs, have remained relatively stable, which has provided a certain cost – support for the aluminum producers. The stable cost structure helps to maintain the profit margins of the enterprises within a certain range, reducing the pressure of price competition in the market.

On the demand – side, there is a structural recovery. With the continuous import of new orders in May, the pre – holiday stocking demand for raw materials such as aluminum ingots and aluminum billets has been stimulated. The new orders mainly come from emerging application fields, such as the renewable energy and automotive industries. For instance, the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry has increased the demand for aluminum frames for solar panels. As the photovoltaic installation is approaching the end – stage within this period, the short – term demand for related aluminum products has surged, which has effectively boosted the market sentiment and the utilization rate of aluminum manufacturers.

The continuous destocking of domestic aluminum ingots has provided strong support for aluminum prices. The decline in inventory levels indicates that the market demand is relatively strong at present, and the balance of supply and demand in the short – term has tilted towards the demand side to some extent. However, holders of aluminum are actively selling at high prices. This behavior has led to a decline in the spot premium. The spot premium is an important indicator reflecting the supply – demand relationship in the spot market. The decline in the spot premium implies that the market is gradually approaching a state of supply – demand balance, and the upward momentum of prices is being restricted.

Comprehensive Outlook

Comprehensively, whether there can be a substantial easing of Sino – US trade frictions still needs to be observed over time. The Sino – American trade relationship has a far – reaching impact on the global economic and trade pattern, especially on industries with high trade dependence, such as the aluminum industry. Although there have been some positive signs in the negotiation process, the actual situation remains complex, and any progress or setbacks will directly affect the market confidence and the operating strategies of enterprises.

In the short – term, the contradiction between the bulls and bears in the aluminum market is still quite obvious. As the transition between the off – peak and peak seasons approaches and the photovoltaic installation is approaching the end, there is an expectation of a subsequent decline in downstream orders for aluminum. The main downstream industries of aluminum, such as the construction and automotive industries, may experience a slowdown in demand growth during this period. Coupled with the active selling behavior of holders in the spot market, the aluminum price lacks sufficient momentum for a significant upward surge.

Overall, it is expected that the domestic aluminum price will mainly fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday. The market will be in a relatively stable but uncertain state, waiting for the arrival of new market signals and changes in the external environment to re – establish the price trend.

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